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By G. Steven Bray
Rates have one thing on their mind: today’s presidential election results. Last week’s jobs report came and went with little more than a blink.
Financial markets are happiest when the world is calm and predictable, and this election season has offered little of either. That said, markets are likely to react differently based on the who wins the presidency.
Hillary Clinton represents the status quo. Markets think they know what they’re going to get. It may not be to their liking or supportive of robust growth, for example higher taxes and greater regulation. However, it is predictable, and investors are likely to react with a relief rally that will lift stock prices and interest rates.
Donald Trump represents change and based on his rhetoric potentially dramatic change. Investors are likely to react cautiously, buying gold and sovereign debt at the expense on stocks. The result would be temporarily lower interest rates.
Eventually, markets may focus on last week’s jobs report, which provided some interesting data. We’ll take a look at that later in the week.