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By G. Steven Bray
We were watching the European Central Bank last week to boost the momentum of our current rally, and its message, while somewhat muddled, was just soft enough to give rates a friendly nudge. That left rates at the lows for the month and looking for a new source of inspiration.
This is a Fed week, meaning the Federal Reserve meets to discuss monetary policy, and that normally could be the inspiration. However, this meeting has no post-meeting press conference, and the consensus is the Fed doesn’t make big policy changes at such meetings.
So, markets are left to drift with the tides. Because of low summertime market volumes, rates are more susceptible to choppiness around political headlines, economic data, and position squaring by investors. We discussed the first, political headlines, last week. Resurrection of the health care bill could be a negative for rates. A Russian bombshell could be a positive. For economic data, we have the Durable Goods report and 2nd quarter GDP at the end of the week. A significant positive surprise in either report could stem our current rally, but I think that’s unlikely. Finally, we have end-of-month position squaring, which tends to provide temporary support for rallies. My conclusion is that lower rates are certainly possible this week, but if you’re floating your rate, watch for headlines that would signal a reversal of fortunes.