Bulls & Blogs

Homebuyers cautious despite strong economy

Real Estate Market Comments Off

May 232019

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Homebuyers remain somewhat cautious about the housing market according the most recent Fannie Mae National Housing Survey. After last month’s blip higher, the share of respondents saying it’s a good time to buy a home resumed the downward trend that started over 5 years ago. Even so, a 14% majority of respondents still thinks it’s a good-time-to-buy.

That decline in buying sentiment largely was responsible for the 1.5 point decline in the overall survey index. It now stands almost 3 and a half points lower than at the same time last year.

The decline was a little surprising given the positive change to two of the other survey components. The net share of respondents who thinks home prices will continue rising fell 2 points, and while a 36% majority still thinks prices will rise, this share is 13 points lower than last year. A large majority, 40%, still thinks mortgage rates will rise in the next year, but that share has fallen 12 points in the last two months.

Among the other survey components, those related to personal finances remain bullish. Consumers overwhelming are unconcerned about job security and by a 22% margin say their income this year is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago.

In addition, a strong majority of respondents, 43%, still thinks it’s a good time to sell a home. That share hasn’t changed much since peaking a year ago.

Here is a link to the full report.

Housing index focused on home prices

Real Estate Market, Residential Mortgage Comments Off

Mar 192019

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Fannie Mae’s housing index was down slightly last month, continuing a slow deterioration of the index that began last year. It’s down 1.5 points since last Feb. While consumers still express strong confidence about their personal finances, their confidence in the housing market is slipping.

The overwhelming majority of respondents still expect their personal financial situation to stay the same or improve in the next year, and a 14-point majority thinks the economy is on the right track. Those percentages have changed little over the last year.

What has changed is the share of respondents who think it’s a good time to buy or sell a home. The “good-time-to-sell” component is down 6 points from last year and down 17 points from its peak last Jun. This may be a reflection of consumer’s softening expectations about home price growth. While a net 33% still expect prices to rise in the next 12 months, that’s down 19 points from the peak last year.

The “good-time-buy” component is down 7 points from last Feb, and has been declining steadily since summer of 2013. Interestingly, this also may be due to rising home prices as it’s the most frequently cited concern of potential homebuyers.

The positive takeaway is that as declining expectations for higher home prices sink in, potential homebuyers may begin to view buying a home as an affordable option again. Consumers still expect rents to rise almost twice as fast as home prices over the coming year.

Link to the full report.

Fannie housing index says it’s a good time to buy

Real Estate Market Comments Off

Oct 312018

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Fannie Mae’s housing index fell slightly last month, but it remains on trend, suggesting the housing market continues to strengthen slowly. The good-time-to-buy component of the index rebounded strongly last month, gaining 5 points. Apparently, the strong economy has buoyed homebuyer sentiment enough to overcome rising interest rates. However, the component still is significantly lower than earlier in the year and is down year-over-year.

The good-time-to-sell component remained flat last month; however, it’s still trending higher and is well within reach of its recent all-time high.

Surprisingly, the components that measure personal finances both fell last month. The net share of respondents who said their income is significantly higher than last year fell by 4 points, and the net share who feel confident about job security fell 1 point. However, this last component is strongly positive (+79%), so the decrease probably isn’t meaningful. The right track/wrong track component widened to 21 points in favor of the economy being on the right track, and that could explain the strength of the good-time-to-buy component.

Neither the home price nor mortgage rate component of the index showed any surprises. Respondents still overwhelming expect home prices and mortgage rates to rise in the next year, and the net share expecting a rise increased for both components last month.

Fannie housing index shows market still strong

Real Estate Market, Residential Mortgage Comments Off

Jun 302018

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Fannie Mae’s housing index rose to another record high last month despite the continued divergence of attitudes about buying and selling a home. The good-time-to-sell indicator rose 1 point last month and now stands at +46 while the good-time-to-buy indicator fell by 1 point and stands at +28. A positive reading means more consumers think it’s a good time to buy or sell than not, so both indicators still suggest strength in the housing market.

The good-time-to-sell indicator has been rising steadily over the past year and is 14 points higher year-over-year. The good-time-to-buy indicator has been relatively flat over the past year, which is good news given the increase in mortgage rates and home prices over the same period.

One possible contributor to the still positive good-time-to-buy indicator is consumers’ attitudes about renting. An overwhelming majority still say they would buy rather buy than rent if they were going to move. In addition, consumers expect rents to rise faster than home prices over the coming year, meaning waiting to buy a home could be an expensive choice.

Respondents continue to report strong personal financial conditions. Again this month they expressed an increased sense of job security, and more reported that their incomes had increased significantly in the last year. Both indicators also are higher year-over-year.