May 072019
 

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By G. Steven Bray

Last week’s two big ticket items, the Federal Reserve meeting and the jobs report, lived up to their billing. The Fed didn’t change policy, nor did the post-meeting announcement really make any waves. It was Fed head Powell, at his post-meeting press conference, who got things moving. He acknowledged that foreign economies look a little stronger than earlier in the year and was equivocal when asked whether the next rate move would be a cut or a hike. (Investors have been hoping for a cut.) Interest rates quickly bounced higher.

Then, we got the jobs report on Fri. The headline numbers were great: a solid beat on jobs created and the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years. However, wage growth was tepid, reinforcing concerns about falling inflation (which tends to depress rates). On top of that, the services sector report missed expectations. Interest rates edged down again, and it looked like we’d be riding the range a while longer.

This week set up to be rather quiet until Friday’s inflation report – until the Chinese pulled away from trade negotiations. Markets have been hopeful for a trade deal, so the president’s threat to impose new tariffs created waves of uncertainty. Investors responded to that by buying bonds, which pushed rates down.

So, where do we go from here? Given that multiple recent economic reports have agreed about receding inflation, it’s unlikely Friday’s Consumer Price Index is going to have much effect on rates. If the index surprisingly doesn’t agree with the other reports, rates may tick up a bit.

However, I suspect rates will rise or fall based on the trade talks. A further breakdown is bound to make investors nervous about a full blown trade war, leading to lower rates.

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