Jun 052018
 

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By G. Steven Bray

As expected, the Italian drama was temporary, and interest rates moved back up last week. Fortunately, markets seem unconvinced that anxiety won’t return. Rates have leveled out for now during a fairly quiet week for economic data.

Next week could be a very different story. Both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meet, and output from those meetings has a high potential to affect the direction of rates. While it seems almost certain the Fed will raise short term rates again at this meeting, it’s Fed head Powell’s post-meeting press conference and the dot-plot that probably will garner the most market attention. Any suggestion that the Fed will be more aggressive could push rates back up to their recent highs.

I think the ECB has a greater chance to push rates the other way. It’s been hinting it will end it’s easy money policy in the near future. Confirmation of that is probably more likely than denial, but the ECB has been cagey in its responses to the rumors. It still could dissipate market energy without an outright denial.

Turning to economic data, we’ve been watching inflation lately. The PCE index, the Fed’s favored measure, continues to show tame inflation with the core reading still below the magic 2% mark. However, the jobs report showed wage inflation ticked up slightly. Other measures show even faster wage growth. As long as the PCE doesn’t accelerate, I suspect the Fed won’t change its rate hike trajectory, which is neutral for rates. However, if the Consumer Price Index starts to rise, it’s likely to change consumer and investor inflation expectations, and that would be bad for rates.

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