For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.
By G. Steven Bray
Interest rates have had an impressive rally the last couple weeks as investor sentiment has become decidedly dour. The rally began in earnest when the Chinese blew up the trade deal, but it’s taken on renewed life as talking heads have started tossing around the “R” word again.
Unfortunately for economic growth, now they have something on which to hang their hats. While employment growth and consumer sentiment still appear strong, some economic activity indicators are pulling back.
This may be a manifestation of the trade war, which means it could reverse if negotiators are able to craft a deal soon. However, other economies, particularly those of China and Germany, are slowing even more quickly. We may already be past the point of no return in terms of the next recession overseas.
So, what does this mean for mortgage rates? If you like lower rates, it’s all positive. It’s quite likely we haven’t seen the lowest rates of the year yet.
That said, it may take a while before that happens. It’s long-term Treasury rates, which readily respond to economic conditions, that have fallen so much recently. Mortgage rates are lagging behind for reasons that aren’t likely to change soon.
Even so, investor sentiment is such that traders may ignore a positive economic report, such as next week’s jobs report, and keep rates in their current, lower range, and over time, mortgage rates will catch up.