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By G. Steven Bray
Some pundits have suggested we’re staring at the beginnings of a new recession fueled by the housing market. Not so, says Ralph DeFranco, Global Chief Economist for Arch Capital Services. He says current housing trends bare no resemblance to conditions that existed prior to the Great Recession.
A recession is inevitable at some point in the future, but DeFranco says it should be less severe for the housing market than the 2008 recession due to three factors:
- He estimates the current market is underbuilt by 1 million homes;
- Homebuyers are more cautious; and
- The quality of loans originated since the Great Recession is much higher.
Conditions were exactly opposite before the Great Recession.
DeFranco also noted that big price drops during recessions are the exception rather than the norm. In the five recessions since 1975, home values have declined only once. Moreover, the current housing inventory shortage likely would soften the effects of a recession on the housing market.