May 092018
 

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Mortgage rates seem to have plateaued again – waiting for the another source of inspiration to set them on a new course higher or lower. Which course is more likely?

The mainstream narrative is that higher rates are inevitable because of the factors we discussed a couple weeks ago, namely more government borrowing, less Federal Reserve accommodation, and continued economic growth.

These factors are undeniable. What we don’t know is the extent to which the market already has priced them in. Maybe rates have plateaued because they already reflect the risks associated with these factors. If that’s true, markets may increasingly pay attention to other factors that could lead to lower rates.

Consider the following:

– While the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, the PCE, moved higher, close to the Fed’s 2% target, it did so because very low inflation readings from last year are dropping out of the calculation. Moreover, transitory factors, hospital costs and oil prices, seem to be causing much of the recent rise.

– While the unemployment rate dropped below 4% for the first time since 2000, employment growth missed expectations for the second straight month, and wage growth also was below expectations.

– The economic expansion is long in the tooth. Talking heads increasingly are warning of a downturn just because it’s been so long since the last one. European economies already look softer.

– Global headlines are starting to grab market attention again. Israel is warning of imminent war in the Middle East, and the President’s withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal adds some uncertainty to the region. On the other side of the continent, while a trade war with China still seems unlikely, talk of it creates uncertainty, and uncertainty exerts downward pressure on rates.

– Finally, it’s probably not too soon for markets to start thinking about the effects of the mid-term elections.

I still think the upward forces on rates will remain stronger in the short term. However, absent some additional positive momentum, the chances are increasing that the next significant move for rates could be lower.

Rate update: The case against higher interest rates

 Interest Rates, Residential Mortgage  Comments Off on Rate update: The case against higher interest rates
Feb 212018
 

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Last week’s inflation report validated investors’ fears about inflation. It ticked up ever so slightly. Interest rates took notice and resumed their march higher.

Here’s what I find interesting about the recent rally in bond yields. The only thing that’s really changed in the last couple months, economically speaking, is the tax plan. While that may add to the Federal debt, we doubled the Federal debt over the last ten years, and markets seemed to shrug. I find it hard to believe they’ve suddenly found religion on the matter.

Some pundits also like to cite Trump’s infrastructure plan as ballooning the debt. It might or it might not, but right now it’s nothing more than policy position. I don’t think it can explain the big jump in rates.

So, that brings us back to inflation. Reported inflation did tick up, but the core rate still is under 2%. It’s likely the uptick is a result of a roughly 50% increase in the price of crude oil since last summer.

I’m not suggesting that you sit around waiting for rates to fall again. However, I am suggesting that the rise has more to do with market action than with economic fundamentals. If I’m correct, that at least gives us hope that the forces for higher rates will abate soon.

Rate update: Inflation: fear or reality?

 Interest Rates, Residential Mortgage  Comments Off on Rate update: Inflation: fear or reality?
Feb 132018
 

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

After rising to the highest levels in over 4 years, interest rates are catching their breath, but I think it’s temporary. As we’ve discussed, the rapid rise seems to be predicated to a large extent on fears that inflation finally will come out of hibernation. Remember that inflation erodes the value of a currency. Thus, investors insist upon higher yields when they anticipate it.

I don’t think the fears are wholly irrational for reasons we’ve discussed, but the reality is we’ve seen very few signs of inflation so far. That could change tomorrow with the release of the Consumer Price Index. This isn’t the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, but being the granddaddy of inflation reports, it’s probably the one markets watch most keenly.

Unfortunately, I’m afraid the downside risk for this report is greater than the upside gain. By that, I mean if the reported value shows even a tenth of a percent increase, rates could quickly rise another 1/8%. If the reading is level or even slightly lower than last month, it should be positive for rates, but I don’t think they’re likely to fall very quickly. Markets seem convinced that inflation is out there hiding somewhere. I think it would take a few more months of continued tame inflation readings before markets will believe again that inflation is not a concern.

So, if you haven’t locked your interest rate, floating through tomorrow carries an outsized risk. If your outlook is a couple months into the future, there’s still hope. The longer inflation doesn’t materialize to validate market fears, the better the chances rates will find a ceiling and provide us with a bounce lower.

Aug 282017
 

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan has a warning. Interest rates are much too low, and he thinks they’re likely to move higher and quickly.

In a CNBC interview, Greenspan said he thinks the bond market is experiencing a bubble with long-term rates abnormally low. The low rates are the result of Fed taking short-term rates to near zero during the financial crisis and keeping them there for years.

The Fed has hiked short-term rates 4 times since then, but long-term rates remain near record lows. Analysts cite many reasons for this including political and economic uncertainty and, most importantly, persistently low inflation.

Greenspan says he doesn’t know when rates will start to rise, but he thinks it will be soon, and once they start rising, he thinks they will rise rapidly, which could put the rest of the economy at risk.