Bulls & Blogs

Housing survey shows strength and caution

Real Estate Market Comments Off

Jul 252019

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Homebuyers remain cautious about the housing market according to the most recent Fannie Mae National Housing Survey. The overall index dipped slightly last month after peaking at a near survey high in May.

The index was buoyed by a rise in one component: the net percentage of respondents who thinks mortgage rates will fall. The remaining components were flat or fell slightly. Interestingly, even though more folks said they think rates will fall, they’re still outnumbered by those who think they’ll rise 4 to 1.

The good-time-to-buy component fell four points last month. However, positive sentiment outweighs negative more than 2 to 1, and a majority still thinks it’s a good time to buy a home.

The good-time-to-sell component was flat, and it remains strongly positive, most likely reflecting the strong price appreciation in most markets over the past few years.

Two measures that aren’t part of the overall index concern rental prices. Respondents still think rents will rise almost twice as fast as home prices, and a majority still believes rents will rise in the coming year. Only 2% think they’ll fall. So, renters still have a strong incentive to become homebuyers.

Click here for the full report.

Homebuyers cautious despite strong economy

Real Estate Market Comments Off

May 232019

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Homebuyers remain somewhat cautious about the housing market according the most recent Fannie Mae National Housing Survey. After last month’s blip higher, the share of respondents saying it’s a good time to buy a home resumed the downward trend that started over 5 years ago. Even so, a 14% majority of respondents still thinks it’s a good-time-to-buy.

That decline in buying sentiment largely was responsible for the 1.5 point decline in the overall survey index. It now stands almost 3 and a half points lower than at the same time last year.

The decline was a little surprising given the positive change to two of the other survey components. The net share of respondents who thinks home prices will continue rising fell 2 points, and while a 36% majority still thinks prices will rise, this share is 13 points lower than last year. A large majority, 40%, still thinks mortgage rates will rise in the next year, but that share has fallen 12 points in the last two months.

Among the other survey components, those related to personal finances remain bullish. Consumers overwhelming are unconcerned about job security and by a 22% margin say their income this year is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago.

In addition, a strong majority of respondents, 43%, still thinks it’s a good time to sell a home. That share hasn’t changed much since peaking a year ago.

Here is a link to the full report.

Fannie housing index shows market still strong

Real Estate Market, Residential Mortgage Comments Off

Jun 302018

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Fannie Mae’s housing index rose to another record high last month despite the continued divergence of attitudes about buying and selling a home. The good-time-to-sell indicator rose 1 point last month and now stands at +46 while the good-time-to-buy indicator fell by 1 point and stands at +28. A positive reading means more consumers think it’s a good time to buy or sell than not, so both indicators still suggest strength in the housing market.

The good-time-to-sell indicator has been rising steadily over the past year and is 14 points higher year-over-year. The good-time-to-buy indicator has been relatively flat over the past year, which is good news given the increase in mortgage rates and home prices over the same period.

One possible contributor to the still positive good-time-to-buy indicator is consumers’ attitudes about renting. An overwhelming majority still say they would buy rather buy than rent if they were going to move. In addition, consumers expect rents to rise faster than home prices over the coming year, meaning waiting to buy a home could be an expensive choice.

Respondents continue to report strong personal financial conditions. Again this month they expressed an increased sense of job security, and more reported that their incomes had increased significantly in the last year. Both indicators also are higher year-over-year.

Record number say good time to sell a home

Real Estate Market, Residential Mortgage Comments Off

May 182018

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

Fannie Mae’s housing index soared to a record high last month despite a negative reading from one of the index’s key components. The net share of respondents who said now is a good time to sell a home increased 6 points from last month to 45%. This good-time-to-sell sentiment has been on a steady rise for the last couple years, but unfortunately it doesn’t seem to have resulted in additional home inventory for sale, which remains very low.

Respondents also reported stronger personal financial conditions. They expressed an increased sense of job security, and more reported that their incomes had increased significantly in the last year.

The net share of respondents who think home prices will continue to rise jumped 7 points this month, and the average expected increase was 3.9%. While that might seem a negative for homebuyers, respondents said they expect rents to rise an average 5.7% over the same period.

The one black mark in the survey was the net share of respondents who think now is a good time to buy. That component fell 3 points last month. It’s likely the combination of higher prices, higher mortgage rates, and fewer homes for sale contributed to the fall. However, these same factors may increase buyers’ sense of urgency even if they don’t think it’s a good time to buy.

Fannie Mae housing survey shows improving sentiment

Real Estate Market Comments Off

Oct 162014

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

The results of the Sep Fannie Mae housing survey turned positive after two down months. The results seem to track the general improvement in consumer confidence noted in other surveys at the end of the summer.

The share of respondents who think it’s a good time to buy a home ticked up 4 points to 68%, and the share who thinks it’s a good time to sell ticked up 2 points to 66%. An improved 66% percent said they would buy if they were going to move as more (55%) also expect rents to rise over the next year.

Folks finally seem to have clued into falling mortgage rates as the same percentage (45%) think rates will stay steady as think they will rise. Only 5% think rates will fall.

One disconcerting result was that despite improving sentiment about the overall economy, fewer respondents see their personal financial situation improving. This tracks rather well with economic reports that show very little growth in personal incomes.

You can find a link to the survey results at the end of my blog.

http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-and-analysis/housing-survey.html

Looking for nuggets in latest Fannie housing survey

Real Estate Market Comments Off

Sep 122014

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Fannie Mae’s Aug housing survey was a bit of downer. The percentage of folks who thinks now is a good time to buy a home dropped another 3 points, and the percentage who thinks now is a good time to sell dropped 5 points. This seems to correlate with industry reports of a slow summer. It also correlates with consumers’ concerns about their personal financial situation and flat income growth.

But if you get past the headlines, the survey results do contain a few positive points that may bode well for the coming year. An increasing share of respondents think rents will rise in the next year, and the expected rate of increase also rose. An increasing percentage also think it would be easy to get a home mortgage. These are people who may be poised to buy a home given an incentive. And that incentive could be rising interest rates. Fifty percent of respondents expect interest rates to fall in the coming year, yet interest rates have been rising, albeit slowly, since the start of Sep. If this trend continues, it might push a few folks off the fence while home affordability is still favorable.

You can find a link to the survey results at the end of my blog.

Fannie Mae housing survey