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By G. Steven Bray
The stock market whipsaw has given mortgage rates a respite from their recent, dramatic rise, but I’m afraid the pause may be all too brief.
Interest rates have been on a tear of late rising a half percent in the last two months. Talking heads, who mostly ignored this until very recently, have been crawling all over each other trying to explain it. Their conclusion – it’s inflation. The only problem is economic reports still show inflation trending below the Fed’s target.
So, maybe it’s the expectations for future inflation. The problem with that is measures of inflation expectations have been rooted. The inflation component of inflation-adjusted Treasury rates rose a bit last fall (when we first started talking about inflation), but it really hasn’t changed in the last month.
So, maybe it’s just silly season stuff. If that’s true, then it’s quite possible the inflation hysteria will fade away over time, allowing rates to slowly trend back down.
So, how should you play this? If you need to close soon, I would favor locking your rate. This just doesn’t feel like the “big correction,” and I think rates still could go higher.
If your time horizon is a few months out, here’s what I would watch.
– The jobs report last Fri showed the highest wage growth since 2009. That’s great news, but the growth rate, 2.9%, matched expectations. Markets already should have accounted for it. However, watch this rate going forward. If it keeps rising, it could foretell rising inflation.
– The Fed has said it will raise short term rates 3 times this year. If the Fed signals a change of heart, it will affect interest rates.
– The Atlanta Fed shows 1st quarter GDP up over 5%. If this number holds, it could put pressure on the big Fed to change its rate hike plans.
– Finally, the Fed is buying fewer bonds, meaning other buyers will have to pick up the slack. So far, this seems to be affecting sentiment more than market demand. However, as the Fed continues to taper its buying, at some point it could put pressure on rates. Additionally, traders are convinced that central bankers worldwide are ready to follow the Fed’s lead. So far, bankers are denying it, but the eventual end of easy money will affect rates.