May 052015
 

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By G. Steven Bray

Mortgage rates moved higher last week – and quickly – but why? The 1st quarter GDP report showed almost no growth of the US economy to begin the year. It seemed that that coupled with other weak economic data would keep rates low.

Unfortunately, the markets didn’t cooperate. We’ve talked a lot this year about how super-low European rates have supported low US rates even when the US economy seemed to be strengthening. Last week, European rates increased dramatically, and it seems they drug US rates along for the ride.

Another contributing factor may have been the report showing wage growth picked up last quarter. As we discussed before, the lack of wage growth in our economic recovery probably was helping keep rates low.

How about the week ahead? The market seems oversold at the moment, which could support a bounce to lower rates. This is a jobs report week. If we get another disappointing report Fri, we could quickly recover what we lost during the last week. However, a strong report could confirm the current market sentiment and leave rates where they are.

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