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steven.bray

Rate update: Virus outbreak leads to lower mortgage rates

Interest Rates, Residential Mortgage Comments Off

Jan 282020

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Tragedy can lead to uncertainty, and uncertainty is good for lower interest rates. The outbreak of the coronavirus in China has unsettled global markets, and investors are running to the safety of Treasury bonds. Investors are concerned the virus will seriously impact global growth. One analyst already is predicting the virus will shave 0.4% off global GDP, and the outbreak seems to be growing.

The effect on stock and Treasury bond prices has been much more significant than the effect on mortgage rates. Even so, mortgage rates are the lowest they’ve been in over 3 years.

If you’ve been watching for low interest rates, don’t procrastinate. As quickly as these rates have appeared they could evaporate. If the number of new cases of the virus starts to decline, markets may conclude the effects will be limited, and rates will snap back.

In that case, we’re back to watching economic data and events, which ramp up this week. The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow. While no one expects the Fed to change its current policy – no rate hikes or cuts until inflation or unemployment change significantly – investors love to parse the post-meeting statements for hidden meanings.

Next week we get the ISM reports and the Jan jobs report. The service sector of the economy has remained strong despite the trade disputes, but pundits have been predicting its deterioration for many months. Should the ISM report hint a downturn, rates could improve further. Likewise, should the jobs report deviate from its current trend, that could gets rates moving.

Spring homebuying season starts in January

Real Estate Market Comments Off

Jan 142020

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

It used to be that the spring homebuying season was in, well, the springtime. According to Realtor.com, the seasons are a-changing. Homebuyers have started shopping earlier and earlier the last few years. In larger cities this year, the homebuying season may have already started.

This phenomenon is likely the result of the lower number of homes for sale over the last few years. That low inventory combined with rising home prices is leading home shoppers to get an early start. With housing inventory expected to reach record lows this year, Realtor.com says the trend towards early shopping should continue.

The company based its prediction on views of its Web site listings. Jan 2019 was only 1% behind Feb for the highest number of views per listing. That’s a huge change from 2015 when Apr was the top month, and Jan views lagged Apr by 16%.

So, if you plan to buy a home this spring, it’s time to start shopping.

Texas housing market outperforming

Real Estate Market Comments Off

Jan 132020

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

A survey of 110 economists and real estate experts conducted by Pulsenomics and Zillow forecasts that Austin has the best chance of all major metros to see above-average home price growth this year. Dallas and San Antonio also ranked in the top 10. According to the survey, home prices will grow an average 2.8% this year, but markets in the South are expected to outperform others.

Austin received a likely-to-outperform score of 76 (out of 100). The next closest metro was Charlotte with a score of 59. 83% of respondents said Austin will outperform the average with only 7% saying it will under-perform. (I think those 7% live in a cave somewhere.)

Dallas placed 5th on the list with a score of 34, and San Antonio placed 8th with a score of 32. A positive score means more respondents think the metro will outpeform than under-perform.

So, what does this mean if you’re planning to shop for a home this year? It most likely means higher home prices. Austin’s current inventory of homes for sale is less than 2 months. (Experts say 6 months is a balanced market.) Dallas is under 3 months, and San Antonio is less than 6 months. As the homebuying season ramps up, you can expect a lot of competition for the home of your dreams.

Rate update: Markets shrug off war drums

Interest Rates, Residential Mortgage Comments Off

Jan 082020

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

When I predict whether rates will rise or fall, I always issue the caveat “absent unexpected headlines.” Well, the past few days have provided a case in point. Rates dropped quickly following the US drone strike last week on the Iranian general and rose just as quickly today following the President’s address that suggested the crisis has passed.

Where does that leave us? Rates are stuck in the range again and waiting for inspiration. Potential sources for that inspiration are many, but let’s focus on a few of them.

First and foremost, if the Iranians don’t “stand down” as the President suggests, rates are certain to fall again. Renewed hostilities will make investors more cautious, and that caution will lead to lower interest rates.

Assuming that doesn’t happen, and markets currently seem confident it won’t, the next big event is this week’s jobs report. Recession whisperers were headliners on cable news last fall when it appeared the jobs market was softening. That changed with Dec’s blowout jobs report. Markets expect another strong report this Fri. Because of this expectation, its verification is unlikely to change rates much. Should the report disappoint, rates should improve a little.

Trade is the other major source of inspiration. The Senate is expected to pass the new trade deal with Mexico and Canada soon, and the President said he expects to sign a Phase 1 deal with China mid-month. Markets widely expect this to happen, so when it does, it’s unlikely to change market sentiment. Rates seem to be experiencing some slight upward pressure, and that probably would continue. However, should we experience a hiccup in either deal, we’d likely see at least a short-term drop in rates.

Fed’s plan for higher inflation could raise rates

Interest Rates Comments Off

Dec 162019

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

A recent story in the Financial Times indicated the Federal Reserve is considering a new policy that would encourage higher inflation to make up for periods of low inflation.

The Fed has been frustrated during this recovery by persistently low inflation, lower than its stated target of 2%. This is despite its efforts to prime the economy and expand the money supply and despite record low unemployment, which economic theory suggests should stoke inflation through higher wages.

But super-low inflation sounds good, right? Well, the Fed is concerned that inflation will turn negative, as it has in Japan. Persistently falling prices are a wet blanket on an economy, robbing it of growth, as consumers and businesses postpone purchases in anticipation of lower prices in the future.

So, why should you care? Interest rates primarily have two components. The first component reflects the cost of money, what you pay the lender for the use of its money. The second component reflects expected inflation. Positive inflation means the same amount of money in the future is worth less than it is today.

So, should the Fed announce it’s raising its inflation target, even if the change is not effective, lenders may raise interest rates to account for the possibility of higher future inflation.

FHA loan limit tops $400,000 in Austin, DFW

Loan Guidelines, Residential Mortgage Comments Off

Dec 142019

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Just before Thanksgiving, we found out the 2020 conforming loan limit increased to $510,400. Late last week, FHA released its 2020 loan limits. By statute, the minimum FHA loan limit is 65% of the conforming limit, or $331,760 for a single-family home.

However, FHA allows higher limits in areas where 115% of the median home price exceeds the minimum. In TX, higher limits apply once again in the Austin, San Antonio, Dallas-Ft. Worth, and Midland metros. Higher limits no longer apply for the Houston metro and Gillespie Co (city of Fredericksburg).

The San Antonio metro took the prize for the greatest increase this year both in dollar amount and percentage rise. The limit rose more than $33,000, or 9.3%, to $393,300.

The Midland area limit also rose significantly, by $23,000 or 7.2%, to $341,550.

The limit in the Austin and DFW metros both rose to $404,800, the highest in the state. The Austin limit was 3.8% higher than last year. The DFW limit was only 2.3% higher.

Remember that these limits apply to all the counties in the metro, not just the cities themselves. Also, these limits apply to single-family homes. Higher limits apply for two- to four-unit properties.

Rate update: Trade deal blues

Interest Rates, Residential Mortgage Comments Off

Dec 132019

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

In the last week, bond markets pretty much have confirmed that the only thing that matters is the trade dispute with China. Last Fri, we got a blowout jobs report. In previous times, rates might have jumped at least an eighth of a point in response. This time – nothing. Wed, Fed head Powell said the Federal Reserve won’t raise short-term rates unless inflation moves up significantly. Given that inflation seems mired below the Fed’s target rate, that comment should have caused jubilation in bond world leading to lower rates. Did it? Nope.

Now to be totally honest, both events did cause short term ripples within the markets, but rates never left their current range. It seems pretty obvious that traders are waiting for something before placing their bets on higher or lower rates.

That something is real factual news about the trade dispute. New tariffs are scheduled to begin this Sunday, and this time the tariffs target consumer products.

You can understand traders’ reluctance to pick a side. Many analysts believe the new tariffs, as proposed, will sap consumer demand. The American consumer has been the sustaining force in the economy this year. It doesn’t matter how good the economic data was last month. If the tariffs go into effect, it’s possible the data turns negative next month.

Now, it’s certain that the Trump Administration recognizes this. It’s also certain that the Chinese recognize the intense pain the tariffs could cause it’s already faltering economy. Thus, both sides have an incentive to announce a last minute reprieve, and it appears today they’ve done so. But the bigger question still remains: Will we get a trade deal?

Congress eliminates VA loan limits

Loan Guidelines, Residential Mortgage Comments Off

Dec 072019

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Starting Jan 1st, Veterans and servicemembers who are entitled to VA loan benefits are eligible for 100% financing regardless of the home’s price. The Blue Water Navy Act, passed by Congress earlier this year, has removed the loan limit for a VA loan.

Previously, federal law tied the maximum guaranty amount for a VA loan to the Freddie Mac conforming loan limit. This meant that in 2019 if a veteran wanted to purchase a home priced greater than the loan limit (just north of $484,000), the Veteran was responsible for 25% of the amount above that limit.

With the change, Veterans with full VA loan entitlement now can borrow the full amount of the purchase price without needing to factor a down payment. However, for Veterans with diminished entitlement, either from having an active loan or a default on a previous VA loan, VA still calculates their remaining entitlement based on the Freddie Mac loan limit.

The Act also changes the VA funding fee. Starting Jan 1st, the no down payment Funding Fee will be 2.3% for first-time use for all Veterans, whether Regular Military, National Guard, or Reserves. This is a slight increase for Regular Military, but a decrease for others. For subsequent VA loans, the Funding Fee rises to 3.6% for all. Congress intended the increase to fund other benefits that are part of the Act.

The Act also provides a new Funding Fee exemption for active duty servicemembers who have been awarded a Purple Heart.

A half million dollar home loan with a low down payment

Loan Guidelines, Residential Mortgage Comments Off

Dec 062019

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

Congress tasked the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) each year to reset conforming loan limits based on the change in the average U.S. home price for that year. FHFA reported that home prices rose 5.38% last year, so accordingly, it increased the loan limit by the same amount to $510,400 for a single-family home.

A conforming loan is one eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government behemoths that control most of the home loan market. Except for government loan programs, Fannie and Freddie programs offer the best combination of low interest rates and low down payment requirements. For both the minimum down payment is 3%; thus, it’s now possible to purchase a half million dollar home with a $15,000 down payment.

Higher loan limits apply in certain “high cost” areas where 115% of the local median home price exceeds the new limit; however, FHFA hasn’t identified any of those “high cost” areas in TX. Higher limits also apply to two, three, and four unit properties.

Tracking the rising loan limit over the last few years gives a good sense of how quickly home prices have been rising. In 2017 the single-family loan limit first rose from its Congressionally-mandated value of $417,000. In three years, the limit has risen 22%.

The new limits are effective for loans that close starting Jan 1st, which means they will apply for homebuyers who are shopping for a new home now (assuming a normal 30-day closing).

FHA sets its loan limit independently of Fannie and Freddie, and I’ll report on it next week.

Rate update: All I want for Christmas is a trade deal

Interest Rates, Residential Mortgage Comments Off

Dec 042019

For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

By G. Steven Bray

I hope you and your family had a blessed Thanksgiving. It was a fairly uneventful one for bond markets with interest rates sticking to their recent range. In fact, rates have been stuck in this range since Sep. Sure, rates move a little week to week in response to headlines and economic data, but I still think the next trend for rates ultimately depends on a trade deal with China, an imminent resolution to which is looking increasingly unlikely.

The main wildcard at this time is the global economy. Earlier in the year, rates dipped invitingly based on weak economic data coming out of Europe and China. There was great concern that the US economy would follow suit. Instead, the US economy, except for manufacturing, showed resillence and even robustness in sectors such as housing. Europe and China now seem to be bottoming out, and some analysts are predicting renewed global growth next year.

As we’ve discussed many times, a growing economy tends to push up interest rates, so that’s the background through which we have to consider our current situation. A trade deal, even a partial one, is likely to foster renewed optimism and, in turn, economic growth. On the other hand, should the trade dispute deepen, it’s likely the hand-wringing and talk of recession will start again. While that’s good for lower interest rates, we risk talking ourselves into a recession regardless of the strength of our economy.

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