Rate update: Fed chair gives them something to talk about

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By G. Steven Bray

For mortgage rates, the highlight of this week already has passed. It was the semi-annual testimony of the Fed Chair to Congress. This was Chairman Jerome Powell’s first experience at this dog-and-pony show, and he made it through mostly unscathed. Given the newness of his tenure, markets were watching carefully for anything that might suggest a change of course.

Unfortunately, Powell gave them something – probably unintentionally. He candidly stated that he thought the economy had strengthened since the Dec. That really shouldn’t be headline news, but markets interpreted his statement to mean the Fed is going to hike interest rates more than expected. Market rates immediately took off.

Was it a knee-jerk reaction? Probably. Rates recovered a little in the afternoon. Will we regain what we lost? Who knows? On the positive side, rates topped out at the top of their recent range before retreating a little. This gives us hope that markets have established a ceiling for now.

The rest of the week offers some more juicy economic data including 4th quarter GDP and consumer sentiment. However, I suspect rate movement is more likely to be dominated by end-of-month trade-flows, which can be unpredictable. If your rate isn’t locked, float cautiously. If rates break higher, I think we could lose another 1/8% fairly quickly.